Slight change for the EUR/USD today.

The pair has traded in a narrow rang throughout the day, with eurozone CPI or US docket unable to give a short-term direction to the pair.
The euro is on track to close its 7th consecutive week with losses versus the dollar and the second month in a row.
In fact, both the personal spending and the income in the united states disappointed expectations in July contracting 0.1% and gaining 0.2%, respectively.
Consumer prices measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) the fed’s favorite  gauge , remained unchanged at 1.6% on a year to july , while core PCE rose 1.5% vs. 1.6% previous.
The Eur is closing another dreadful week, trading in levels last seen in early September 2013 ahead of the key ECB meeting due next week.

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EUR/USD Looking For Some Correction Aug. The 28th.

The EUR/USD declined today to 1.3165 after the German unemployment data for the month of August came in at 2k versus 12k in July (revised higher).

And we can notice that the EUR going toward a corrective recovery against the USD after prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern.

dailyclassics_eur-usd_body_Picture_5 

Also, dailyfx.com said: Ahead of the data, EUR/USD managed to push above the critical 1.3200 level to trade at 1.3203. Immediately after the release, the Euro took a dive but remained relatively muted against the US Dollar amid breaking below the psychologically important 1.3200 mark. Focusing ahead, EUR/USD will be fed by the release of August’s German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the revised second-quarter US GDP report, which is due at 12:00 GMT and 12:30 GMT respectively, later today. The 2Q US GDP report is expected, by the market, to be revised down to 3.9 percent from an initial reading of 4.0 percent. DailyFX Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak says softer-than-expected print may undermine the speculation of a sooner-than-later interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which bodes-ill for the US Dollar. Finally, Eurozone CPI numbers are set to take center stage on Friday and its outcome may provide traders with more information of the timing and the possibility for further easing by the ECB. For those forex traders that endorse technical analysis when trading, Ilya Spivak mentions near-term support to rest at 1.3151 (76.4% Fib Ret.) and near-term resistance at 1.3232 (14.6% Fib Ret.). He is short EUR/USD at 1.3644 in line with his long-term fundamental outlook. Meanwhile according to DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index, the ratio of long to short positions in the EUR/USD stands at 1.79 as 64 percent of traders are long.

 

The Crude Oil Trying To Correct His Way Up Today.

We can notice that the crude oil aiming for some profits as it started the day with 93.81$ and reached 94.24$ and trying to keep that movement up to stay above the 94. and all the happened according to economies.com :

4.1.1

U.S. crude oil futures were slightly changed on Wednesday after a government report showed a larger-than-forecast drop in oil inventories but a fourth weekly increase at Cushing. -WTI crude oil futures for December delivery were last up 7 cents at $93.94 a barrel, after having hit a high of $94.23 a barrel earlier on the session. Crude-oil stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels to 360.5 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 22, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Analysts had expected stocks to fall by 900,000 barrels on the week, according to Bloomberg estimates.. Stockpiles are at their lowest since Jan. 31. However, supplies in Cushing, Okla., rose by 500,000 barrels to 20.7 million barrels. Cushing is the physical delivery point for the Nymex contract. Benchmark U.S. prices have been showing a reaction to Cushing supply levels in recent months, and reports that Cushing supplies hit six-year lows earlier this summer boosted prices. Refining capacity utilization rose by 0.1 percentage point to 93.5% of capacity. Analysts had expected the operating rate to fall by half a percentage point in the week. Brent retreated from $103 a barrel on Wednesday, but was still higher on the back of a 14-month low hit last week. But on Wednesday traders were watching to see if the Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea, one of the biggest contributors to physical supplies underpinning Brent future contracts, would return quickly after shutting again for additional maintenance. -Brent crude for October delivery was up 12 cents at $102.62 a barrel in early U.S. trading, moving away from a 14-month low of $101.07 a barrel last week. The contract earlier hit a high of $103.05.

Expecting downward move if it is keep bouncing under 94 and move to 91.60 (scenario 1) or continue upward and move toward 97.1 ( scenario 2 ).

August Will Be The Victory Month For The US Dollar.

The positive position for the US dollar still standing against the major currencies in the market for the last month of this month and probably it will be the month of victory to it.

And some said:US Dollar strength in August shouldn’t surprise – it’s a seasonally strong month.Also : dailyfx.com said : The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has yielded bullish results for the US Dollar, which isn’t necessarily a surprise given the recent strength of the US economy. The Citi Economic Surprise Index has risen to +4.4, its highest level since February 14, which matches the USDOLLAR Index’s rise to its highest level since February 7.

While some add that : The dollar rose to the strongest in almost a year against the euro amid speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2015, while the European Central Bank signaled additional measures to support growth. The U.S. currency climbed versus most of its major peers as a Fed measure of the nation’s economy expanded more than forecast last month. The euro slid after ECB President Mario Draghi said inflation expectations have declined, in remarks at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said jobs gains may mean the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. Sweden’s krona fell to a two-year low. “There’s a heavily ingrained view that the dollar should be stronger, against the euro specifically,” Douglas Borthwick, the head of foreign exchange at New York brokerage Chapdelaine & Co., said by phone. “It’s a continuation from what we saw last week with Yellen and Draghi. The market is now convinced that the U.S. will move to raise rates, while the ECB moves to cut rates by some sort of quantitative easing.” The dollar appreciated 0.4 percent to $1.3195 per euro at 3:37 p.m. New York time, after touching $1.3184, the strongest level since Sept. 9. The currency has posted six consecutive weekly gains. The greenback was little changed at 103.99 yen after reaching 104.49, the highest since Jan. 23. The euro dropped 0.3 percent to 137.20 yen. Shekel Falls Israel’s shekel was the biggest loser of the dollar’s 31 major counterparts, slipping 1.1 percent after the nation’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates to a record. Pakistan’s rupee fell the most since 2009 before erasing losses as a standoff between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and opponents demanding his resignation showed few signs of abating. The krona declined after the government cut its growth forecast for a second time in two months, citing turmoil abroad. Gross domestic product for the largest Nordic economy will expand 1.9 percent this year, below a July forecast of 2.5 percent, the Finance Ministry said on Aug. 23. The krona dropped 0.3 percent to 6.9311 per dollar, reaching the weakest level since July 26, 2012. New Zealand’s dollar fell against all of its 16 major counterparts as analysts predict a report tomorrow will show the nation’s trade balance slipped into deficit last month. The kiwi dropped 0.7 percent to 83.47 U.S. cents after sliding to the lowest since Feb. 27. Euro Influence The euro extended a slide after a survey showed German business confidence dropped for a fourth month, reflecting a faltering euro-area economy that Draghi said might need more monetary stimulus. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, fell to 106.3 in August from 108 in July. Economists predicted a drop to 107, according to the median of estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. French President Francois Hollande was forced into the third major overhaul of his ministerial team in two years after a dispute on hauling the economy out of stagnation prompted the government’s collapse. Hedge funds and other large speculators turned the most bearish on the euro in more than two years, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington. The difference in the number of wagers on a decline in Europe’s currency versus those on a gain — known as net shorts — rose to 138,825 in the week through Aug. 19, the most since July 2012. Draghi View Draghi said investor bets on euro-area inflation “exhibited significant declines at all horizons” in August. Policy makers “will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability over the medium term,” he said in a speech at Jackson Hole. The U.S. economy has made considerable progress and the labor market is healing, Yellen said in her Aug. 22 speech at the conference. Her remarks appeared in line with the message from minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which showed officials growing more aware that labor markets are approaching full employment. Euro-dollar “certainly feels soft at the moment,” Fabian Eliasson, who works in foreign-exchange sales at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. in New York, said by phone. “Everyone is still looking for clarity and more of an outline of when the first rate hike will be. Some of the numbers have been supportive of an economy that is advancing, but the Fed is still taking a bit of a careful attitude.” Economic Update A gauge of economic activity released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago beat analyst estimates, advancing to 0.39 in July, more than the 0.2 forecast, according to a report today. Economists predict data tomorrow will show orders for durable goods in July rose at the fastest pace since March 2011. The dollar has gained 1.5 percent in the past month, the best-performer after Norway’s krone among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro fell 0.5 percent and the yen declined 0.9 percent. “The dollar rally that has remained elusive for all of this year is starting to gather some momentum,” Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc. in Washington, said in a phone interview. bloomberg.com

But we still in the first day of the week and we will see what tomorrow will show us with the sun rise of a new day. 

Yellen Fired The Last Shot , And the US Dollar Win.

Fed Chair Yellen’s main said : that the Fed was closer to achieving its policy objectives. Also she Add that the interest rate hikes could be coming sooner than market participants currently expect, especially if the labor market begins to progress faster. Overall, this provoked an updraft in both stock prices and US yields, lifting the US Dollar. And the dollar reached an 11-month high against the euro.

technically :

“The market reaction has been positive for the dollar,” Brian Daingerfield, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s RBS Securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a phone interview. “We’re very used to Chair Yellen’s view of the labor market being generally considered on the dovish side. Today’s commentary was neighter particularly hawkish or dovish.” The U.S. dollar gained 0.3 percent to $1.3245 per euro at 3:10 p.m. in New York, after appreciating to $1.3221, the strongest level since Sept. 9. The greenback added 0.1 percent to 103.90 yen after advancing to 104.18, the highest since Jan. 23. The euro fell 0.2 percent to 137.65 yen. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, increased 0.1 percent to 1,028.46, touching the highest level since Feb. 4. The measure is up 0.9 percent this week and 1 percent this year.

Also, regarding the EUR/USD is up a tad on the release of Draghi’s speech. However, there wasn’t a great deal in his comments although something to take note from was that the expected diverging policy paths in US and euro zone should sustain exchange rate trend. Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities explained that they do like EUR/USD lower from a medium-term perspective, and she see’s downside risks to the IFO data on Monday, which will likely help to reinforce worries about Eurozone growth. So we would look at any bounce higher as a good opportunity to sell EUR for those who missed today’s initial leg lower, before what are likely to be new 2014 lows for the currency, with a break below 1.3220/30 triggering the next leg down to 1.30.

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paul_wallace_2014

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The British Pound Trying To Recover After Carney’s Spoke.

After the talk up of Mr. Carney hinted interest rates may rise sooner than markets expect in his interview with the Sunday Times over the weekend, also he said : the economy is “much more than halfway” to full economic recovery and argued interest rates may have to rise before wages, seemingly contradicting rhetoric released in the quarterly Inflation Report just last week. – See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/08/19/british-pound-gains-carney-talks-interest-rate-hike-timeline/#sthash.Je7jo9KT.dpuf 

That causes a raised in the British pound up to 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts, and yesterday opened the GBP/USD the day with 1.6690 and  raised to 1.6734.

But for today the pound shows a weakness against the major currencies and may fall on soft CPI data as the fxstreet.com report and they added : UK CPI figures headline the economic in European hours. Consensus forecasts suggest the headline year-on-year inflation rate will slow to 1.8 percent in July, marking a slowdown from the 1.9 percent print recorded in the prior month. UK price-growth data has tended to underperform relative to analysts’ expectations since the beginning of the year, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome is likely to weigh on BOE rate hike speculation, pushing the British Pound lower. Follow-through may be limited however. Sterling has been fallen for six consecutive weeks alongside front-end bond yields, suggesting markets have been trimming tightening bets for some time now. Such one-sided price action warns that big-splash volatility risk may be asymmetrically tilting to the upside in the near term.

And the expected levels for the GBP/USD for today as bellow:

Today’s central pivot point can be found at 1.6680, with support below at 1.6661, 1.6637 and 1.6618 with resistance above at 1.6704, 1.6723, and 1.6747. Hourly RSI is bullish at 53, while hourly Moving Averages are largely bearish, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.6793, and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.6869.

For more information visit :www.fxstreet.com

currency-great-british-pound

The Gold Trying To Test The 1280 This Week.

As we saw from last Friday that the Gold prices is getting down and even the tensions in Ukraine did not help to keen the traders to buy it, and today was bouncing a round 1300.

And the forexnews.com said that : Over the last week or so Gold has been meeting resistance around $1313 which has seen it finally ease lower to end last week and at the start of this week. A couple of weeks ago it moved well away from the support level at $1290 and back up well above $1300 to a two week high above $1322 before easing lower. It had also been easing lower and placing pressure on the support level at $1300 which eventually gave way resulting in gold falling sharply back down to a six week low near $1280 a few weeks ago. Over the last few weeks the $1290 level has shown some signs of support and held gold up and this level has been called upon again in the last week to prop gold up. During the second half of June, gold steadily moved higher but showed numerous incidents of indecision with its multiple doji candlestick patterns on the daily chart. This happened around $1320 and $1330. The OANDA long position ratio has moved back back below 60% again as gold has remained steady around $1310. At the beginning of June, gold did very well to repair some damage and return to the key $1275 level, then it has continued the momentum pushing a higher to its recent four month high. After moving so little for an extended period, gold dropped sharply back in May from above the well established support level at $1275 as it completely shattered this level falling to a four month low around $1240. It remained around support at $1240 for several days before its strong rally higher. It pushed down towards $1280 before sling shotting back and also had an excursion above $1300 for a short period before moving quickly back to the $1293 area again. Over the last few weeks gold has eased back from around $1315 to establish its recent narrow trading range below $1295 before its recent slump. – See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2014/08/18/gold-threatening-break-1300/#sthash.MSosc4o4.dpuf

 

Summer , Vacations and The markets.

summer

Question : would got your annual vacation or you are not yet ?

Question: Did you have plan for it and ready for everything or not ?

Those are the daily questions that most of the people that i know that keep on asking me and few people how is asking about my trades and the foreign exchange market news.

That is why i started my researches to find out the best way to enjoy it with my family and to help the others to make the best plan for their vacations.

So, i want to share with you my happy followers what i found in one of the ideas that i liked, and it was from bizymoms.com, and they said :Ideas for Summer Vacation Plan Summer is the best time of the year for most of us and we all know why. Everyone anticipates a season of fun, outdoors and sun. All of these things together lift up spirits in all of us which in turn help us to enjoy this season to the full. So, in this great season, the word ‘vacation’ is the ideal. To experience a vacation that is unique and enjoyable you need to plan well ahead. The following paragraphs will provide a wealth of information on getting the perfect summer vacation. Think Beyond! First and foremost, this is important. Don’t follow the logical and easy choice of referring to online agencies to book a summer vacation. Go beyond and give a shot at booking a package through an airline, for example. These days, airlines and hotels are now selling themselves through the web. For example, airlines offer vacation packager services. In this they provide customers with vacations in places like Las Vegas in casinos at discounted rates. Also, now through Marriot you will be able to book a flight car and rooms. The downside of this is that you are at a lack of options. If you book the vacation package through an airline, you will have to stick to the package strictly. Similarly, if you book through a hotel package, you will only be able to stay at their properties. You can nullify the downside if you can make sure that it makes you a major saving economically. Travel As usual, airfares increase during the summer months by at least 10 percent. You can avoid this by booking your ticket at least two months in advance. And this will save you from paying double as well. Though the airlines will be expensive, there are always discount airlines. They are continuing to expand their routes and destinations which will mean that you might have good break in your traveling arrangements to your summer destination. Discounts Hotel rates are also a cost that is likely to increase by at least 6 percent during the holiday times in summer, so it will be advisable for you to consider a vacation rental if you’re staying more than two or three days. In a vacation rental, you can get an entire house. And the discounts may even be better. Make sure you ask about a discount if you’re staying more than seven nights. If it’s in the high season for that area, you can probably get a 5 to 10 percent discount. If you’re in the low season, you may be able to get 15 to 20 percent off your price. You may be able to barter your talents for a discount too. For example, if you’re a photographer or a writer, you might offer to take photos or write a description of the vacation rental. If you tell the rental owner that you’ll provide referrals to your friends, he/she may also give you a small break in your tab. Cruises If you like the endless seas adventure, this is perfect for you. Summer months will be perfect for the cruise plan of yours, since present cruise discounters, cruise-only booking sites, booking sites and last-minute web sites are all fighting for your cruising dollars. And since cruise lines are all about loyalty and customer service, you’ll probably have more leverage if you’re dissatisfied. Visit these sites and get a great deal suited for you and your family.

I wish every body a happy and save summer vacation.

 

CHEERS